In the past year, since the beginning of Russia’s large-scale war against Ukrainethe past year, since the beginning of Russia’s large-scale war against Ukraine, Russian regular troops have not been able to achieve their main goals of destroying Ukrainian statehood. The high human losses of the Russian armed forces forced the Kremlin to engage the services of private military companies, which attract mercenaries primarily from Russian prisons and Russian mercenaries deployed in African countries. Partially successful military operations using mercenaries were covered as much as possible in the Russian mass media to distract the population from the failures in Ukraine. Thus, Kremlin uses mercenaries of the private military company “Wagner” (PMC “Wagner”), which during the past year managed to increase its influence in Russia and abroad.For reference: PMC “Wagner” – was created in 2013 in the Russian Federation to participate in armed conflicts without the involvement of regular troops. The number of military personnel is about 50,000 people (in 2014 – about 5,000 people), most of whom fight in Ukraine, and the rest promote Russian interests in the countries of Africa and the Middle East (Mali, Sudan, Libya, CAR, Burkina Faso and Syria) .The further activity of the company is becoming unprofitable for Russia and the Western countries, which are interested in elimination of the PMC leaders and mercenaries.Sanctions Since the beginning of 2023, the democratic world has intensified the struggle against PMC “Wagner” by imposing sanctions against mercenaries of this company. Restrictions include: freezing of assets of mercenaries, prohibition of entry into countries or transit through their territories, termination or prohibition of conducting any business activity.For reference: In 2016, for the first time, American sanctions were imposed against the head of the PMC Ye. Prigozhin. During 2017, 2018, 2020, sanctions against other individuals of the PMC were imposed. In January 2023, the U.S. Treasury Department identified the Wagner PMC as a transnational criminal organization and announced the inclusion of new PMC members in the sanctions list for mass executions, rape, child abduction, physical violence in the CAR, Mali, Sudan, and crimes in Ukraine.The European Union supported US sanctions in 2020 against the company’s chief executive, with subsequent expansions against individual mercenaries. At the end of February 2023, within the framework of the EU’s Global Human Rights Sanctions regime, additional restrictions were introduced against the managers of the PMC “Wagner”, who are involved in crimes in Ukraine, CAR and Mali.Similar restrictions were supported by Great Britain in 2020 and 2022, Japan in 2022-2023, and Australia.In addition, these countries continue to put pressure on China and African countries to end cooperation with PMC “Wagner”. At the end of February 2023, the US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, Daniel Crytenbrick, reported that the Chinese satellite company Spacety had transferred satellite images to PMC mercenaries. Currently, the USA continues try to put pressure on the allied countries of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates so that these countries convince the local leaders of Libya and Sudan to stop cooperating with the Wagnerites.Growing influence is a danger for mercenariesThe occupation of the Ukrainian city of Soledar (Donetsk region) with the help of mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC was covered by the Russian media as a significant success. However, in comparison with the expulsion of the Russian regular troops from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions by the Ukrainian troops, such successes seem insignificant.Despite this, the head of the “Wagner” PMC, Prigozhin, for the first time allowed himself to start a campaign to shame the Russian military leadership. Before this, only the Russian president Putin, had such a right. In 2022 Ye. Prigozhin publicly accused the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Gerasimov of “treason” for the lack of adequate material and financial support and insufficient ammunition during the “special military operation” (this is the name used by the Russian political leadership to deny the war in Ukraine).While the mercenaries flaunt better weapons, military equipment and royalties compared to the Russian regular forces. This led to the growth of Prigozhin’s popularity among Russians as the only “defender of Russia”.Significant expenses from the budget of the Russian Federation for the conduct of war (according to Forbes estimates during the year of the large-scale war amounted to about 115 billion US dollars or 30% of the expenses of the budget of the Russian Federation in 2021) and the decrease in the income of Russians due to the effect of sanctions allows Prigozhin to start a hidden campaign of discredit political leadership of Russia. This can be done through the formation of public opinion in Russia with the help of media resources of PMC “Wagner” – LLC “Agency of internet investigations” and the creation of a separate political party in Russia.In order to maintain power, president Putin will have to rely more on regular troops and limit the coverage of mercenaries in the Russian information field.At the same time, the mercenaries of the PMC “Wagner” managed to expand their influence in the Middle East and African countries due to the displacement of European countries from the regions of their traditional influence (former colonies).The interests of the mercenaries of the “Wagner” in these regions are enrichment due to the exploitation of the countries’ natural resources (illegal extraction and sale of gold, precious stones, gas). The number of mercenaries exceeds 5,000 people, and the annual income of PMC “Wagner” is estimated at several billion US dollars.In Syria, mercenaries, together with Russian regular troops, helped B. Assad stay in power (in 2012, he controlled about 30% of the country’s territory, and at the present time – over 60%), after which the country came under complete economic dependence on Russia, including mercenaries.At the beginning of 2023, the American magazine “Politico”, citing Western officials and the US government, reported that the annual income of mercenaries from the illegal mining and sale of gold and precious stones in the Central African Republic amounts to about one billion dollars. The United States, and UN experts confirmed that in 2021, 95% of the gold mined in this country was exported illegally.PMC “Wagner” began exploiting gold in the CAR in 2018. Currently, there are about 2,000 mercenaries in this country.In addition, during the years 2021-2023, the mercenaries of PMC “Wagner” succeeded in ousting the French from Mali and Burkina Faso and gained access to the mining and sale of gold and precious stones. In particular, at the beginning of 2023, the leadership of Burkina Faso denounced the agreement between France (as of 2018) regarding the presence of French troops and demanded their immediate withdrawal. The presence of mercenaries in Mozambique is aimed at Russia’s exploitation of liquefied natural gas, precious metals and stones.The last unsuccessful attempt by mercenaries to destabilize another African country was reported by the American newspaper “The Wall Street Journal” at the end of February 2023. In particular, according to the publication, the United States passed on intelligence data to the leadership of Chad about the cooperation of Wagnerites with local rebels to destabilize the government and physically destroy the president.Such activity by the mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC in the region will affect the interests of other countries. Thus, Great Britain is interested in maintaining its influence on the 21 African countries that are members of the Commonwealth of Nations (an association of 56 countries, most of which were part of the British Empire) and will try to more actively oppose the Wagnerites.Poisonous cooperationDemocratic countries will intensify their cooperation to stop the activities of the Wagner PMC in Africa and the Middle East by increasing pressure on the leaders of these countries.In order to stay in power and not want to be sanctioned, the leaders of African countries who use the mercenary services of PMC “Wagner” are forced to turn to the services of other military companies. Another reason to stop cooperation with PMC “Wagner” is the danger of uprisings of the local population due to mass atrocities (kidnapping, execution, rape) of mercenaries. However, the desire of local leaders to revise any terms of cooperation with the mercenaries of PMC “Wagner” may lead to their physical destruction.The mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC were also in a more disadvantageous position, facing a quick death and the lack of promised funds. In January 2023, British Defense Minister B. Wallace stated that about 70% of the Wagner PMC mercenaries from the released Russian prisoners (the majority of mercenaries fighting in Ukraine) do not live to see the end of their contracts. Accordingly, the main motive for their cooperation is freedom, not royalties.Also, the management of the PMC “Wagner” sends mercenaries from the countries of Africa and the Middle East to die in Ukraine by means of deception. First, mercenaries are offered to sign contracts for the protection of objects with high fees, and then they are transferred to Ukraine. The rest of the mercenaries will be destroyed by European and American forces in order to maintain their influence in the region, or by the mercenaries themselves (to avoid desertion among the mercenaries, the management of the “Wagner” PMC encourages brutal, demonstrative execution)Mentioned facts demonstrate that the recognition of PMC “Wagner” as a transnational criminal organization by the governments of the USA and Lithuania is only the beginning of the process of insuring the organization’s status as an international criminal organization, cooperation with which will bring more and more significant political and economic losses for governments, peoples of countries,
